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US payrolls preview: June NFP seen slowing sharply to 110k after May's surge
US June payrolls expected at 110k, down from 172k. CBA flags upside risk to USD/JPY on a beat. Unemployment steady at 4.3%. Data due Thursday.
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US nonfarm payrolls data due Thursday are expected to show a sharp slowdown in June hiring, with consensus forecasts pointing to a gain of 110k jobs, down from May's outsized 172k increase.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% month on month and accelerate slightly to 3.5% year on year from 3.4% prior. Average weekly hours are seen unchanged at 34.3.
May's report set a high bar. Westpac said payrolls surprised materially to the upside that month, with the initial 172k gain compounded by 93k in back revisions to March and April. That lifted the three-month average payrolls pace above 188k, a rate of job growth well in excess of new labour supply. Household employment growth remained comparatively weak over the same period. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%. Wage growth stayed benign.